OMAHA (AP) — An October survey of business supply managers suggests a bump occurred in economic growth for nine Midwest and Plains states, according to a report released Friday.

The Mid-America Business Conditions index rebounded to 52.6, compared with 49.1 in September, the report said. The August figure was 49.3.

“For 2019, the Mid-America economy has been expanding at a pace well below that of the nation,” said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey.

“The trade war and the global economic slowdown have cut regional growth to approximately one-half that of the U.S. October’s survey results indicate that regional growth is likely to bottom at positive, but slow rate, in (the) fourth quarter of this year,” he said.

The survey results are compiled into a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Survey organizers say any score above 50 suggests growth. A score below that suggests decline. The survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

The regional trade numbers remained weak last month, with both export orders and imports falling, if at a slower pace. The index for new export orders rose to 44.7 from September’s 36.2, while the import index rose to 48.2 from 42.4.

The wholesale inflation gauge for the month rose to 57.0, up from 55.3 in August.

Nearly 60% of supply managers reported that tariffs had increased the prices of supplies and inputs purchased by their companies, Goss said.

“However, tariffs have, to date, have had little impact on our wholesale inflation gauge,” said Goss.

Looking ahead six months, the October business confidence index slipped to 47.3 from September’s 47.7 reading.

“I expect business confidence to depend heavily on trade talks with China and the passage of the nation’s trade agreement with Canada and Mexico,” Goss said.

Here are some state-by-state results for October:

Iowa: After two straight months of below growth neutral readings for Iowa, the state’s overall index climbed to 53.5 in October from September’s 49.6. Index components were new orders at 59.3, production or sales at 57.9, delivery lead time at 49.2, employment at 51.2 and inventories at 49.8. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to slow but remain positive and hourly wage growth to continue at its current solid pace through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

Nebraska: Nebraska’s overall index climbed to 53.7 from September’s 50.6. Index components were new orders at 59.7, production or sales at 57.7, delivery lead time at 49.3, inventories at 50.0 and employment at 51.5. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to rise slightly and hourly wage growth to expand at a higher annualized pace of 3%-4% through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

Arkansas: The state’s overall index jumped to 53.4 from September’s 48.3. Index components were new orders at 59.2, production or sales at 57.9, delivery lead time at 49.2, inventories at 49.7 and employment at 51.2. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to slow but remain positive, and hourly wage growth to decline to an annualized range of 3.5%-4.0% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

Kansas: The Kansas overall index rose to 54.6 last month from 51.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 62.0, production or sales at 56.9, delivery lead time at 50.0, employment at 52.8 and inventories at 51.3. The manufacturing sector has boosted jobs by 0.9% over the past 12 months and hourly wages by 1.4%. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to remain at its current pace, and hourly wage growth to expand above its current pace through the first quarter of 2020,” said Goss.

Minnesota: Minnesota’s overall index hit 51.3 in October, compared with 48.4 in September. Index components were new orders at 50.2, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 48.7, inventories at 48.9, and employment at 50.3. “Based on recent surveys of manufacturers in the state, I expect job growth to move into positive territory but below an annualized pace of 1%, and annualized hourly wage growth to slow to a 3.5%-4% range through the first quarter of 2020,” he said.

Missouri: The overall index for Missouri advanced to 53.6 last month from September’s 49.2. Index components were new orders at 59.6, production or sales at 57.8, delivery lead time at 49.3, inventories at 50.0 and employment at 51.4. “I expect job growth to accelerate but remain below an annualized rate of 1.5%, and hourly wage growth to rise significantly to an annualized range of 3.5%-4% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

North Dakota: The overall index for North Dakota slipped below growth neutral to hit 49.7 in October, compared with 50.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 50.3, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 45.8, employment at 48.7 and inventories at 45.4. North Dakota’s manufacturing sector has boosted jobs by 1.1% over the past 12 months and hourly wages by 6%. “I expect job growth to slow but remain positive, and annualized hourly wage growth to decline to less than 4% through the first quarter of 2020,” Goss said.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s overall index has fallen below growth neutral for two of the last three months. The index hit 48.7 last month, compared with 50.1 in September. Index components were new orders at 52.7, production or sales at 58.4, delivery lead time at 42.3, inventories at 44.5 and employment at 45.6. The state’s manufacturing sector has lost 1.5% of its employment over the past 12 months. “I expect job growth to move into positive territory but remain below 1% annualized, and hourly wage growth to continue at its current solid pace through the first quarter of 2020,” said Goss.

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